The Return of the Big Swing
Dame is home. Ja is here. Scoot is playing for a contract, Sharpe is in a knee brace until spring, and a first-time head coach on a one-year guarantee has to make it all fit. Meanwhile the arena clock runs out on New Year's Eve. Boring is officially off the menu.
01 · How we got hereLast season in one paragraph
Let's start with what happened. Portland went 42–40 last season, finished eighth on tiebreakers, then went to the play-in and beat Phoenix on April 14 to take the No. 7 seed. San Antonio, the eventual Western Conference champion, ended it in five games in the first round. Damian Lillard didn't play a minute of it. Interim coach Tiago Splitter took over after Chauncey Billups was arrested on Oct. 23, 2025, in a federal gambling case and placed on leave by the NBA. Splitter then left to coach the Bulls. Tom Dundon's group took control of the franchise on March 31.
That's the baseline: 42 wins with no Lillard, 50 games from Shaedon Sharpe, 53 from Jrue Holiday and 30 from Scoot Henderson. Deni Avdija became an All-Star, averaging 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists. Toumani Camara played all 82. Donovan Clingan averaged a double-double at 21. The floor was 42. Everything this season is about how high the ceiling goes.
02 · Who's hereEvery arrival and what it cost
| Arrival | How | From | Terms / cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant G | Trade (June 29) | Memphis | Cost Jerami Grant and Kris Murray. Memphis added $1M in cash and no picks moved (Jake Fischer). Owed $42.2M this season and $44.9M in 2027–28 (Sporting News). |
| Branden Carlson C | Free agency | Oklahoma City | One year at the minimum, fully guaranteed (Hoops Rumors). |
| Micah Potter C | Waiver claim | Indiana | Non-guaranteed, expiring $2.8M minimum deal. Made the opening-night roster. |
| John Tonje G | Two-way | Boston (FA) | Two-year two-way. Averaged 18.0 points in the G League. |
| Robert Williams III C | Re-signed | Portland | Three years, $43.5M. Only year one is fully guaranteed. |
| Micah Nori HC | Hire (June 23) | Minnesota (lead asst.) | One guaranteed year plus two option years (ESPN). |
| Damian Lillard G | Back from injury | Achilles rehab | Signed in July 2025 and played zero games last season. For the rotation, he's the biggest addition of all. |
Portland had no picks in the 2026 draft. Making the playoffs sent the first-rounder to Chicago, completing a 2021 three-team trade.
03 · Who's goneAnd where each one landed
| Departure | How | Landed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerami Grant | Trade | Memphis | Centerpiece of the Morant deal. 18.6 points in 57 games last season. |
| Kris Murray | Trade | Memphis | Portland's No. 23 pick in 2023. Never locked down a rotation spot. |
| Matisse Thybulle | Free agency | L.A. Lakers | One-year deal. |
| Caleb Love | Two-way | Philadelphia | Portland didn't tender a qualifying offer. |
| Blake Wesley | Free agency | Clippers camp, then waived | Cut Oct. 17. |
| Jeremy Sochan | Released | Free agent | Released Saturday (Oct. 17) after six weeks in camp. The Oregonian's Joe Freeman wrote that Portland valued roster and salary flexibility over his defense and playmaking at the end of the bench. |
| Tiago Splitter | Hired away | Chicago (HC) | Went 42–40 and got the No. 7 seed as interim coach. |
Count the forwards. Grant, Murray and Sochan are all gone. Behind Avdija and Camara, the forward depth is mostly Vít Krejčí, Sidy Cissoko and hope. The open 15th roster spot is general manager Joe Cronin's best tool for fixing that.
Tale of the tape · The Morant trade
Stats: Basketball-Reference. Plus $1M cash to Portland, no picks.
04 · No deal for ScootThe contract year starts now
Monday's deadline came and went, and Scoot Henderson didn't get a rookie-scale extension. Chris Haynes reported it first and The Oregonian confirmed it. Henderson will be a restricted free agent next summer. KGW points out he's the only 2023 top-five pick without a deal. The rest of that group got paid: Victor Wembanyama five years and $252 million, Brandon Miller five and $209 million, Amen Thompson five and $208 million, and Ausar Thompson five and $155 million.
The Oregonian quoted Cronin from media day calling an extension "tricky" because Henderson is "a high-variance player," while also calling him "a high-priority player." Portland can still match any offer sheet next summer. Our view: a 22-year-old combo guard coming off the bench and playing for his next contract is a dangerous man. Expect him to shoot a lot.
05 · Dame gets realThe return of No. 0
The last time Lillard played an NBA game that counted, he was wearing Milwaukee green, and the night ended with his left Achilles torn. He told Marc J. Spears of Andscape that getting hurt and waived by the Bucks was "the darkest day," and that retirement crossed his mind "for a split second" because of his kids.
The preseason backs him up. Lillard said he came out of all three exhibitions feeling fresh, and Blazer's Edge has him at 17.3 points in 22.7 minutes, 8-of-21 from three. On Ja Morant, he told Spears: "A lot of people have him wrong... he's a solid dude."
Wednesday is Lillard's first regular-season home game as a Blazer since March 17, 2023. He's 624 points from becoming the first Blazer ever to 20,000. At his career pace that's a matter of weeks, and Moda Center will be counting every bucket.
06 · The rotationFour guards, two spots, ten men
Here's the math. Two guard spots times 48 minutes is 96 minutes, and Lillard, Morant, Holiday and Henderson all deserve about 30. That's 120 minutes for 96 seats. Micah Nori is sticking with a 10-man rotation, so someone's minutes get squeezed.
Up front, Robert Williams III put it bluntly: "We need to f—ing rebound." Portland ranked 17th on the defensive glass last season, and a small backcourt makes it harder. Clingan, who averaged 12.1 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks while starting 77 games, carries most of that load.
Injury report · ESPN
Out Shaedon Sharpe (knee)
DTD Jrue Holiday (hand)
DTD Chris Youngblood (calf)
DTD Micah Potter (illness)
The Sharpe hole
Sharpe tore the lateral meniscus in his right knee in an offseason workout and had surgery Aug. 26. The team set a six-month reevaluation. The Oregonian said that means at least the All-Star break, and outside estimates put his return around March. His 20.8 points a game won't come from any one player.
07 · X-factorsThree things that swing the season
Deni Avdija. He's the best player on the team, and anyone who still thinks it's Lillard's team hasn't been watching. The offense runs through him as much as through either star guard. His back is the one worry: he said at media day he was "99.9% good and ready" (via Eurohoops).
Jrue Holiday. At 36 he's still the best perimeter defender of the four guards, and he shot 37.8% from three last season. That makes him the natural sixth man, and also Portland's most logical trade chip if the forward hole needs filling. He's day-to-day with the hand.
The coach. ESPN reported that Nori's deal has one guaranteed year. He has 17 years as an assistant behind him, a roster built to win now, and no long runway.
08 · The arena clockModa Center, money and a rumor
The state of Oregon put up $365 million in bonds for a Moda Center renovation, as long as the deal gets done. The city's August term sheet calls for the council to consider definitive agreements by Dec. 31, and Blazer's Edge reports that the state's $365 million expires that day. Dec. 17 is the council's last scheduled meeting of the year, which makes it the practical target for a vote. In mid-October, KGW reported that city negotiators still saw "distance" between the sides on rent, revenue sharing and labor standards.
Rumor The Athletic, citing anonymous sources, reported that Dundon privately raised relocation. Confirmed Dundon denies it on the record: "We are working to keep the team in Portland."
Our view: the lease runs through 2030, but the money runs out on New Year's Eve. Expect a nervous December.
09 · The Wild, Wild WestThe biggest moves in the conference
| Team | '25–26 | O/U | The move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 64–18 | 62.5 | Kept the MVP. Lost Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins to Atlanta. Still the favorite. |
| San Antonio | 62–20 | 59.5 | Wembanyama got his max extension and they added Tobias Harris. The team that ended Portland's season just reloaded. |
| Denver | 54–28 | 49.5 | Added DeMar DeRozan. |
| L.A. Lakers | 53–29 | 46.5 | LeBron James left for Philadelphia. It's Luka's team now, with Walker Kessler and Austin Reaves. |
| Minnesota | 49–33 | 48.5 | LaMelo Ball came in a four-team trade, plus Jonathan Kuminga. Julius Randle and Naz Reid are gone, and so is Nori. |
| Phoenix | 45–37 | 40.5 | Added Miles Bridges and Luke Kennard. Wednesday's opponent. |
| LA Clippers | 42–40 | 28.5 | Traded Kawhi Leonard to Toronto. Vegas sees a freefall. |
| Memphis | 25–57 | 29.5 | Full reset. Morant is gone, Grant and No. 3 pick Cameron Boozer are in. |
Win totals: BetMGM (Oct. 13). Moves: NBA.com offseason tracker. The middle of the West got softer. The top got scarier. Portland lives in the middle.
10 · Opening nightSuns vs Trail Blazers · Wed 10.21 · 7 PM PT · Moda Center
Tale of the tape · Opener
Line: POR −3.5
11 · PredictionsClearly labeled, entirely ours
Why we're keeping 45–37. Our Oct. 19 print issue already had Sharpe out until about March, so the biggest piece of bad news was priced in. Scoot's missing extension doesn't change who's on the floor this season, and a contract year is a motivator. The day-to-day tags on Holiday, Youngblood and Potter are minor. Releasing Sochan makes thin forward depth a little thinner, but he was at the end of the bench. Nothing in the last 48 hours moved the number enough to change it.
What could make it the under: the defense of a small backcourt, the health of a 36-year-old coming off an Achilles tear and of a guard who has played 79 games in three seasons (AP), rebounding (17th on the defensive glass), a rookie head coach, and a December arena fight that could hang over the locker room.
Our award picks
MVP: Victor Wembanyama
ROY: Cameron Boozer
Comeback: Damian Lillard
Most Improved: Donovan Clingan
Sixth Man: Jrue Holiday (if he's still here)
Bold takes
1. Portland beats Phoenix and Dame scores 20-plus.
2. Lillard passes 20,000 before Thanksgiving.
3. Holiday is traded for forward help before the deadline.
4. A Moda deal gets done, but only after a December scare.
5. Scoot plays his way into a big offer sheet.
Predictions and bold takes are our opinion, not reporting.
Sources: Chris Haynes; The Oregonian/OregonLive (Joe Freeman); KGW; Marc J. Spears, Andscape; ESPN; Blazer's Edge; The Athletic; AP; Sporting News; Hoops Rumors; Jake Fischer; Eurohoops; Basketball-Reference; NBA.com; BetMGM. Rotation and rebounding notes from Oct. 20 reporting. Facts current as of Oct. 20, 2026.